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News
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Wednesday, 03 March 2010 |
Neil Barofsky, special inspector general for TARP, filed his quarterly report with Congress that was published on Sunday. Therein, Mr. Barofsky warned that the economic crisis will continue to worsen. Mr. Barofsky believes that absent real reform in the financial sector, the benefits of the TARP programs will not prevent an even greater economic meltdown in the future. Financial institutions deemed “too big to fail” have received bail out monies, and yet have not discontinued the practices that resulted in their near collapse. These banks continue to grow in size and have not ceased the practice of awarding their top executives enormous bonuses and salaries. Mr. Barofsky blames the banks’ belief that the government will again provide a bail out if things go awry.
Mr. Barofsky and his team are involved in investigating many allegations of fraud on the part of financial institutions. He believes that the Treasury Department must enact stricter and clearer rules to provide a better framework for banks regarding conflicts of interest. Thus far, the Treasury Department is unwilling to do so, as it believes current rules are sufficient, and that those suggested by Mr. Barofsky would impede the success of the TARP program.
The report also warns of a possible new housing bubble. More than ninety percent of home mortgages are backed by federally-controlled mortgage programs, and the Federal Reserve has supplied one and a quarter trillion dollars to stabilize mortgage rates and allow more homeowners to refinance. This, he warns, could result in an artificial inflation of home prices. Once the Federal Reserve reduces the monies being injected into the housing sector, it is likely that the value of homes will significantly decline.
Although the Obama administration maintains that the program has stabilized the housing market, Mr. Barofsky urges a reformation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to avoid another financial crisis.
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Tuesday, 02 March 2010 |
As mentioned in his State of the Union Address, President Obama is advocating reliance on new nuclear power plants to move the United States as a means of promoting “greener” energy. His strategy is intended to convince Republicans and moderate Democrats that he will compromise in order to get a climate and energy bill passed. He also believes that constructing new nuclear power plants will provide many jobs in the clean energy sector. He cautioned that the new generation of nuclear power plants will have to be clean and safe. Nuclear reactors currently supply twenty percent of the nation’s electricity, and accounts for seventy percent of our “green” energy.
Obama’s budget proposal is expected to include a request for fifty-four billion dollars in nuclear power loan guarantees. In order to meet the eighty percent reduction in greenhouse gases by 2050 as proposed in pending legislation, the EPA suggests that we would need to build 180 new reactors prior thereto.
Prior to his speech to Congress, Senators Kerry, Lieberman and Graham were suggesting that the energy and climate bill presented to the Senate would include both nuclear energy and offshore drilling as a means of securing enough votes to prevent a filibuster. Whether or not President Obama’s endorsement will help bring additional moderate Democrats and Republicans on board without alienating more liberal Democrats opposed to nuclear power and offshore drilling remains to be seen.
In keeping with the increasing likelihood of additional nuclear power plants in the United States in the near future, the Department of Energy has formed a bipartisan commission to look into potential sites for the disposal of highly radioactive wasted. The previous administration’s plan to dispose of the waste at Yucca Mountain has been vetoed by President Obama.
The nuclear industry welcomes the increased interest in constructing new nuclear power plants.
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Saturday, 27 February 2010 |
Although Mr. Obama came to office with the deficit at a staggering $1.3 trillion, many argue that the economic stimulus bill and other spending programs are to blame for its persistence.
President Obama has requested three hundred billion dollars for job creation and recession relief as part of his $3.8 trillion budget. These monies will only modestly affect the rate of job growth for Americans and will result in the largest deficit in history. With unemployment rates nearing ten percent, Democrats facing difficult midterm elections this year are concerned about job creation.
President Obama’s budget includes a reduction in the deficit in the amount of $300 billion this year, with additional reductions over the next ten years in the amount of one trillion dollars. He has said that painful cuts will be needed to move toward a balanced budget. His proposal includes tax increases on wealthier Americans in the amount of one trillion dollars, as well as a freeze on many domestic programs for a savings of two hundred fifty billion dollars. The tax increase would affect married couples earning in excess of $250,000 and individuals earning more than $200,000. Those affected would face a tax rate as high as 39.6 percent and changes to the laws regarding charitable gifts and mortgage interest deductions.
Republicans counter that the spending reductions are too minimal to make any dent in the deficit, and decry the reliance on increased taxes and debt.
President Obama faces a nearly impossible task of creating a budget that does not deepen the recession, but one that also does not ignore the massive looming deficit. He has noted that the need to create more jobs necessitates increasing the deficit in the short-term. He has proposed a commission to recommend cuts to reduce the deficit and the federal debt, with recommendations due after the midterm elections in November.
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Thursday, 25 February 2010 |
With the exception of commercial real estate loans, applying for a loan is not getting more difficult. In a survey released by the Federal Reserve Monday, there is information revealing that banks are not introducing additional steps for individuals and businesses trying to obtain loans. The additional requirements that have been introduced during the past two years of the financial crisis remain in place, however.
The Federal Reserve voted to continue low interest rates to continue to bolster the fledgling economic recovery. Noting that bank lending has not increased, President Obama has urged bankers to increase lending. Bankers maintain that fewer loans have been given because of a reduction in demand by consumers wary of assuming debt in the current economy. The rate of unemployment and that status of the economy have resulted in fewer requests for home mortgages and consumer loans. Reluctance by consumers to spend money on big ticket items accounts for the projected modest economic recovery.
Banks are anticipating less of a reduction in the value of loans they hold in the upcoming year, but believe that the credit quality of borrowers obtaining primary and secondary mortgages will continue to decline. Banks expect that the credit value of other types of consumer loans will not erode in 2010. This signifies a measurable improvement from the last two years.
Commercial real estate loans will continue to be problematic for banks of all sizes. Smaller banks are particularly prone to difficulties given the declines in the commercial real estate market. The bad debts held by smaller banks often result in a contraction of available credit to small businesses. As small businesses are the economic engine that drives job creation, the contraction of available credit will retard the economic turn around, as businesses may not be able to expand facilities or increase the numbers in their workforce.
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Tuesday, 23 February 2010 |
As high school seniors anxiously await letters of acceptance from colleges, they also have to face ever-increasing tuition costs. Given the condition of State budgets, the traditionally affordable state schools have been forced to raise tuition.
This year, the average cost for tuition, not including room and board, is $7,020. For most students, this is means paying between $172 and $1,096 more this year than last.
At the University of Illinois, many students are finding it difficult to come up with the $20,000 needed for tuition, room and board. With a deficit of $11 billion and the State’s failure to remit $430 million owed to the university, there is no choice but to increase tuition.
In Florida, where students currently pay only about $3,000 for tuition, plans are in place to increase tuition by fifteen percent per year until they reach the national average. In California, students have faced thirty-two percent increases this year, and Governor Schwarzenegger is proposing an additional increase of ten percent for this year.
At the University of Washington, students face a likely increase of fourteen percent as well as reduced access to financial aid. Students who already live at home, work part-time and take loans worry about the ability of their younger siblings to afford to go to college in the future.
In Madison, tuition hikes were met with increases in available financial aid. The increased tuition is being earmarked for increasing the number of classes and the amount of financial aid, as well as better student services. Accordingly, the increased costs are less controversial in Wisconsin.
A few states have passed zero or modest increases in tuition. Students in Georgia can take advantage of the popular “Fixed for Four” program whereby a student’s tuition remains constant for all four years of college. For current freshmen, that means paying $3,865 per year.
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Sunday, 21 February 2010 |
There is a double standard for property owners with mortgage liabilities that exceed the value of the real estate. For the individual, defaulting on a loan earns you the label deadbeat. For a real estate investment company, walking away from devalued property is a wise business decision. How is this the case?
Although allowing a bank to foreclose will have a significant impact on an individual’s credit rating, for some it is a better choice than remaining in a property with a monthly payment that far exceeds its value. Even though it might make financial sense to walk away from the devalued property, many elect to remain in homes that they can no longer afford because of social pressure to abide by your financial obligations.
The average American facing high mortgage payments despite decreasing property values usually feel obligated to continue to make their monthly payment even though defaulting might be financially advantageous. Not so for giant real estate tycoons. Tishman Speyer Properties, whose holdings include Rockefeller Center and the Chrysler Center in New York, as well as dozens of other properties worldwide, has turned over 11,232 Manhattan apartments to its creditors. Although the company has $33 billion in assets, the apartments’ value has plummeted from $5.4 billion to $1.8 billion. Unable to find a buyer or satisfactorily restructure its debt, Tishman chose to default rather than enter into bankruptcy. The effect of this decision on its reputation in the real estate world will likely be minimal.
The disconnect between real estate giants and the average American homeowner facing foreclosure is similar to the continued suffering of Main Street as Wall Street is bailed out by Washington. As average Americans struggling to pay mortgages read about firms such as Tishman, the anger of this disparity should soon come to the attention of legislators and policymakers.
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Thursday, 18 February 2010 |
The United States hopes that the decision to provide Taiwan with $6.4 million in arms will not permanently damage relations with China. The relationship between Taiwan and China, as well as issues surrounding China’s currency valuation, protectionism, oppression in Tibet and civil liberties such as unfettered access to the internet continue to pose stumbling blocks to the more cooperative nature of U.S. – China relations.
The United States is bound by the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 to provide defensive assistance to Taiwan. The State Department noted that the sale of arms was in accordance with our commitment to provide this assistance.
The Defense Department hopes that China’s decision to forego bilateral military contacts will be short-lived. U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates plans to visit China this year remain unchanged, though China might cancel the visit as a form of sanction.
China’s missile stockpile was highlighted in the 2010 Ballistic Missile Defense Review Report to Congress by the Pentagon. The United States is concerned about an imbalance of military power between Taiwan and mainland China. Presently, China has 1,400 missiles aimed at Taiwan. China maintains that Taiwan must submit to reunification, and has long decried the United States’ role in supplying the island with weaponry which only protracts Taiwan’s submission.
Although China has threatened to sanction companies that have supplied Taiwan with arms, many believe the outcry is intended to discourage the sale of F-16 fighter jets to the province. China has limited options to pressure the United States, but can try to use the U.S. desire for Chinese support in containing the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea as a means of exerting influence. China would need to do so carefully, as trading influence in resolving global problems for a better position in a bilateral conflict could result in greater isolation in the international community.
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Monday, 15 February 2010 |
Goldman Sachs’ chief executive will likely receive a much smaller compensation package than his previous $67.9 million total in 2008. In response to ongoing criticism and in an effort to appease regulators, Goldman has altered its system of awarding bonuses. Compensation for top executives was halted after the third quarter in 2009, managers received bonuses in stock rather than in cash, and the company made $500 million in charitable donations.
Some in the industry have figured that Lloyd Blankfein will receive about $40 million for 2009, given Goldman’s earnings of $13.39 billion. He did not receive a bonus in 2008 at the height of the financial crisis. The Times of London has suggested that he might receive a bonus of $100 million, which would be a blow to President Obama and his current criticism of excessive executive pay in the financial sector given the benefits they received from the federal bailout.
Although political and societal pressure could curb the compensation awarded to Mr. Blankfein, other lesser executives might reap greater rewards for their role in Goldman’s record profits this year. It is not unlikely that the executives heading bond, stock, currency and commodity sales could enjoy bonuses in the amount of $20 million. All bonuses will likely be made in stock rather than in cash, in keeping with current practices on Wall Street. The new bonus system is intended to help limit risk in the financial industry.
It is unlikely that the reduction of executive pay from $67.9 million to $40 million or the change to bonuses in stock rather than cash will satisfy angry American taxpayers who feel they have shouldered the cost of propping up the financial markets. For those Americans still feeling the effects of the economic downturn, these changes will seem to be cosmetic at best.
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Thursday, 11 February 2010 |
The manufacturing data released in January 2010 has resulted in some optimism concerning the economic recovery in the United States. The manufacturing sector expanded more rapidly than forecast in January. This marks the sixth month in a row of manufacturing expansion in the U.S. The optimism engendered by this data has resulted in increasing oil prices that continued to accelerate upon hitting the $75 mark. According to fund manager Tetsu Emori at Astmax Co Ltd, traders get concerned when prices are at the $75 level. This may have resulted in an overselling in the market. Some traders will find it advantageous to make purchases whenever the price is less than $75 to $80.
Another leading indicator, the Institute for Supply Management Index, registered its highest level since August 2004. This suggests that the United States is coming out of its recession, and that demand for oil may soon increase. He continued improvement in commodities markets was reflected in the gains seen in Australian currency following a likely increased interest rate.
The possible increase in demand for oil has been tempered by the high levels of U.S. crude inventories. The disruptions that occurred at a port in Texas had an only marginal effect on the size of the overall inventories, with gasoline inventories likely having increased by 1.3 million barrels. Presently, shipping traffic has been reopened in the Sabine-Neches Waterway in Texas following the tanker collision and resulting oil spill on January 23.
Reports from the American Petroleum Institute and statistics from the U.S. Energy Information Administration will provide additional data for analysts.
Meanwhile, those in the oil business do not anticipate a real increase in demand, believing that any real economic recovery is yet to be had. Their view of the recovery will likely change only if the level of inventories decreases significantly.
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